Category: Hell in a handcart

We’re all doomed

  • Lethal stupidity on a truly horrific scale

    The Sun’s front page after nearly 1,000 people died in a single day.

    The official UK coronavirus death toll will crack 10,000 today. The real death toll, which unlike the official figures includes those who died in care homes, those who died at home and those who had not already been tested positive for COVID-19, is much higher.

    The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine has published a good explanation of why the official figures are inaccurate, complete with spreadsheets so you can see for yourself. The figures we’re given in the daily briefings do not tell us how many people died on a particular day. They tell us how many deaths in hospitals were reported that day. There is often a delay between the death occurring and the death being reported.

    Here’s an example. The figure for 8 April was 828 deaths, but none of the 828 deaths happened on the 8th of April. They happened on the 4th of March, and the 5th of March, and the 31st of March, and the 4th of April, up to the 7th of April. Some of the people who died on the 8th will be reported in the figures for the 9th, and the 10th, and so on.

    What that means is that there’s a big lag between people dying and their deaths being counted, and that lag can be dramatic: the officially announced death toll for 31 March was 679, but NHS England’s statistics now say it was 1,710. The difference isn’t usually that dramatic, but it does mean that the figures are at best a guide to what’s been happening rather than an accurate picture.

    [Update: that means you should prepare for very bad news in the early part of next week: there will be a lag due to the Easter holiday, so we’re likely to see a spike in numbers when those reports come in.]

    However you count it, we’re now on track to have the highest death toll of any country in Western Europe, despite having had more time to prepare than the rest of Western Europe.

    If you can bear to read it, there’s a timeline of the lethal arrogance that’s already killed thousands of people here.

    Nesrine Malik in The Guardian:

    It is a jarring experience to wake up to a British death toll that is almost a thousand a day, and not see that number on every front page, being put to every politician in every single interview, with a demand for an explanation. It is as if those who should be asking these questions, from the media to opposition politicians, have been subjected to a mass memory-erasing exercise. Every report showing the scale of the crisis should be framed in the language of accountability and anchored in the premise of preventability. With all the benefits of hindsight, the government dragged its feet, wasted precious time and infused the issue with a sense of British exceptionalism: drastic measures need not be taken because in the UK things will somehow be different.

    … It’s hard, as we lock down, to nurture an outrage that is based on decisions in the past when the loss of life is happening today – more so when the government has stealthily removed itself from the picture and shifted the responsibility entirely on to the public

    …Relocate the pain and recall that this need not have happened. Ten thousand people, in UK hospitals alone, have now died.

  • One in ten

    At the time of writing:

    101,000 – total global deaths from Covid-19

    8,958 – total UK deaths from the same virus, excluding hundreds more in care homes

    The UK has nearly one in ten of the global deaths from this virus despite being one of the most recent countries to get it.

    Today’s daily death toll, 980, means for two days running the UK has had more daily deaths than the worst days in Italy or France.

    That’s despite having the benefit of time to see how the virus has spread in other countries, time to order protective equipment and ventilators, time to plan an effective response. Time other countries didn’t have.

    Things could have been even worse. If the football authorities hadn’t become fed up with government inaction and decided to cancel multiple big games in March, the numbers  would be even higher.

    This is a political failure on a truly horrific scale.

    It’s time for the press to do its job and hold the government to account.

  • Beware bored police officers

    Here’s Cambridge Police on Twitter this morning.

    Let’s play a little game. It’s called “show us which specific part of the emergency coronavirus legislation details which supermarket aisles are essential and which ones are non-essential”.

    There isn’t one, of course. Shops are allowed to sell anything they have in stock, and you are allowed to buy it.

    And it’s not just the Cambridge plod. Yesterday we had suggestions that police would check the contents of people’s shopping carts to make sure they weren’t buying anything frivolous. Last week, police were deciding that cigarettes and alcohol weren’t permitted.

    So far at least this is a fairly innocuous example of something much more serious: whenever new powers are made available to people, some of those people will deliberately or accidentally overestimate the powers they have.

    Whenever new powers are being considered, even in an emergency, one question should always be paramount: what could the worst person in the world do with those powers? Because once the powers have been made available, you’ll find out.

  • To protect the NHS, stay home (at elections)

    This is doing the rounds on social media right now.

    It’s funny, but like the best political jokes it has sharp teeth. How many of the people standing outside clapping for the NHS on a Thursday evening voted for a party that’s stripped the NHS bare, refused to pay staff properly, refused to consider its workers key staff when deciding who can live in the UK, refused to stockpile adequate protective equipment, refused to take part in a ventilator purchase scheme for ideological reasons and conducted ongoing privatisation by stealth?

    How many of the people demanding footballers pay some extra cash are making similar demands of the UK’s super-rich?

    How many of the newspapers calling NHS nurses and doctors angels and promoting NHS fundraisers are owned by billionaires and published by companies carefully structured to avoid paying tax?

    NHS underfunding is not an act of God. It’s an act of politicians. And no amount of charity campaigning will fill the gap between what the NHS needs and what the government has been willing to give it – especially once the coronavirus crisis is over and the government can get back to business as usual.

    The NHS is desperately underfunded, its staff underpaid and its recruitment hampered by our immigration and Brexit policies. That didn’t start with this coronavirus, and if we don’t demand real change those problems will continue long after COVID-19 is beaten. And when the next pandemic strikes, we’ll be just as unprepared.

  • 5G, Coronavirus and clickbait

    The mainstream media has been quick to point the finger at social media for the conspiracy theory that 5G mobile phone signals spread Coronavirus. But the mainstream media played its part too.

    Here’s the Daily Star, just before people started arson attacks on mobile phone masts.

    Coronavirus: Fears 5G wifi networks could be acting as ‘accelerator’ for disease

    You may be getting flashbacks to when the likes of The Independent, the Daily Mail and the Telegraph covered “fears” that wi-fi and mobile phones caused “electrosmog”. Or perhaps you’d like a more damaging example, such as the “fears” that vaccines could cause autism.

    The headline is important, because many people read it and don’t read further. In this case, that means they’ll go away with the impression that 5G networks (not WiFi, that’s a different thing and a different conspiracy theory) affect Coronavirus.

    They do not.

    They can not.

    There is no possible way in which they could*.

    5G signals are just radio waves. They have the same effect on viral spread as the shipping forecast from Radio 4.

    Now, I know the Daily Star hardly counts as the quality press. But it’s a newspaper nevertheless, and people believe what it prints. And from the headline down, this article is constructed in exactly the same way newspapers have covered other baseless scares from the MMR vaccine and electrosmog to trans healthcare, creating the impression of a danger that does not exist.

    I’ve grown to detest newspaper stories with “Fears” in the headline because they’re so frequently baseless. People may fear that if we go beyond 30mph in a train, our faces will fall off (a genuine fear from the early days of rail travel) or that if we sail our ships too far we’ll fall off the end of the world (an old favourite that’s back! Back! BACK!), but fears are not facts.

    Fears also require context: is this fear credible? Is the person expressing this fear credible? Does this person have any expertise that means we should take their fears seriously? For example, if the chief medical officer fears that a particular behaviour will put people at risk of a particular virus, that’s an informed fear. Whereas if a man who lives in a bin fears that if he ventures out before midnight a magical space owl will steal his eyes, that’s a slightly different proposition.

    Unfortunately in these clickbait days it’s more important for something to be popular than for it to be accurate, informed or useful; if my imaginary man-in-a-bin actually existed, you just know he’d get 15 minutes on Newsnight, a column in The Spectator and a regular guest spot on Question Time.

    Back to the Star. Since publication, the original story has been been rewritten to make it clear that the “fears” are really fact-free claims by “conspiracists”. But the original gave them hundreds of words to spout gibberish, which it didn’t try very hard to correct. For example:

    The theory has been met with scepticism from experts, who have pointed out that coronavirus cases have been identified in many areas with no 5G networks.

    “Scepticism” means doubt and implies that there’s a debate here. There is no debate here. Experts have called the claims “crackpot”, “rubbish” and “dangerous nonsense” because there is no conceivable way in which mobile phone signals can spread coronavirus. You might as well say that “the theory that putting custard in your ear cures cancer has been met with scepticism from experts”.

    Activist Louise Thomas, based in Somerset, told Daily Star Online: “We can’t say 5G has caused the coronavirus, but it might be exacerbating it.”

    Is Louise a credible person to base a news story on? Does she have expertise in virology or radiobiology?

    Let’s look at her Facebook. She describes herself as:

    Yoga, pilates, fitness, meditation teacher Truth advocate, mother.

    But Louise is the warm-up act for another activist:

    Tanja Rebel, another activist and philosophy lecturer at the Isle of Wight College, told us:

    What is it with philosophy lecturers and science denial? They’re all over trans medicine too, shouting LA LA LA I CAN’T HEAR YOU at doctors and the WHO. She says:

    “Many studies show that Electro-Magnetic Radiation (EMR) suppresses the immune system and that it helps viruses and bacteria thrive.”

    Did someone mention the WHO? Yes. Me, just a moment ago. Here they are:

    In the area of biological effects and medical applications of non-ionizing radiation approximately 25,000 articles have been published over the past 30 years. Despite the feeling of some people that more research needs to be done, scientific knowledge in this area is now more extensive than for most chemicals. Based on a recent in-depth review of the scientific literature, the WHO concluded that current evidence does not confirm the existence of any health consequences from exposure to low level electromagnetic fields.

    Back to our philosopher.

    “So EMR and in particular 5G could act as an accelerator for the disease.”

    That’s not how this works. That’s not how any of this works.

    The article goes on:

    Italy, now the country with the highest coronavirus death toll, had 5G networks installed in five cities in 2019 with plans to extend coverage throughout 2020.

    You can see what the writer is trying to do here: she’s implying causation from correlation. But there is no correlation – the map of coronavirus cases in Italy bears no relation to the 5G coverage map; the technology is still only available to a handful of people – and of course there is no causation. The Italian death toll is multifactorial: an ageing population, an overloaded medical system in specific areas (notably Lombardy), inadequate testing, people not taking the danger seriously enough until it was too late.

    As if that wasn’t enough of a reach:

    A 2011 study from Northeastern University in Boston indicated that some single-celled bacteria, such as E.coli, may communicate with each other using “radio waves”.

    First of all, bacteria aren’t viruses, so this has nothing to do with the story. Bacteria are living organisms; viruses are particles. Bacteria could be setting up video chats on Houseparty for all we know; it still has no bearing on viruses.

    And secondly, oh no it didn’t. It wasn’t a study, it was a still-controversial hypothesis by theoretical physicists about a possible mechanism in which some bacteria may generate detectable radio signals.

    Very little is known about COVID-19, the novel coronavirus at the heart of the current pandemic, but research has shown that viruses “talk to each other” when making decisions about infecting a host.

    That’s a very misleading way to put it. Here’s Nature on that research:

    when a phage infects a cell, it releases a tiny protein — a peptide just six amino acids long — that serves as a message to its brethren: “I’ve taken a victim”. As the phages infect more cells, the message gets louder, signalling that uninfected hosts are becoming scarce. Phages then put a halt to lysis — the process of replicating and breaking out of their hosts — instead staying hidden in a sluggish state called lysogeny.

    That’s what we mean when we describe viruses “talking to one another”. They’re not sending each other messages on WhatsApp.

    This particular monstrosity may have been in the Daily Star, but there are articles like it in all the press with increasing regularity on all kinds of subjects.  The topics and mastheads may vary, but at heart the problem is universal: all too often, mainstream media tells us to ignore the experts and listen to cranks instead. The consequences of that go far beyond a few blackened phone masts.

    * Radio is a spectrum. In much the same way that there’s a difference between your lover’s breath and a hurricane, some radio waves are harmless and some are harmful. For example, X-rays and UV-A light are known to damage us.

    That kind of radiation is called ionising radiation, and it lives in the petahertz and exahertz frequencies. Mobile phone signals are not ionising radiation. They are much, much lower frequencies. It’s like the difference between the sun and a light bulb. The sun emits high levels of ionising radiation. The light bulb in your kitchen doesn’t.

    You can still be damaged by lower frequency radio waves, but that requires a lot of power because it works in a different way. Ionising radiation breaks cells; non-ionising radiation heats them up but only if you give it a lot of power.

    Think of your microwave: it uses radio waves to generate heat, and it does that by using a lot of power at a short distance. So your ready meal is being hit with 900 watts for four minutes at a distance of ten centimetres of so in a closed and reflective compartment. The result of so much power over such a short distance is that the water molecules in the food get hot. If you climbed inside a microwave and switched it on it would do the same to the water molecules inside you. This is why you shouldn’t dry small wet dogs in the microwave.

    Back to the difference between your lover’s breath and a hurricane: they’re both moving air, but only one of them can throw a cow through the front of your house.  It’s the same with mobile phones. Where your microwave is 900W, a 5G cell is around 2W to 5W; where your microwave is right next to your dinner, the 5G cell is many metres – often hundreds of metres – away. 

  • Don’t blame your neighbours. Blame the government

    The chorus of anger at people supposedly risking everybody’s lives by going to the park is growing louder, especially in the right-wing press; the government is now floating the idea that going outside at all may be banned “if people continue to flout the rules”.

    Don’t fall for it: it’s a deliberate attempt to bury bad news. The government (and its media cheerleaders) wants you to blame so-called “covidiots” because if you’re getting annoyed at them, you’re not getting annoyed at a government that’s gutted the NHS so badly that key frontline workers are being forced to make their own protective clothing out of bin bags.

    BBC News:

    Several healthcare workers in England have told the BBC of a lack of equipment in their hospitals. Warned against speaking to the media, they were unwilling to talk publicly.

    these medical professionals, who continue to care for critically ill patients for 13 hours every day, are having to resort to fashioning personal protective equipment (PPE) out of clinical waste bags, plastic aprons and borrowed skiing goggles.

    People are not going to die because your next door neighbour went for two walks today, or because someone sunbathed in the park. But people will die because of the decisions that left the UK short of health workers, of ventilators to treat the sick and of protective equipment for the doctors and nurses our politicians stand outside Downing Street to applaud.

  • “A doctor wearing a Spiderman mask and boxing gloves.”

    Frankie Boyle is the comedian we need in these dark times.

    2020 began with Australia on fire and a billion animals dead. It’s sobering to think that will be the feel-good story of the year.

    He’s writing for The Overtake, a small, independent and excellent publication made by – in their own words – (relatively) normal people. If you can throw a few quid their way it would make an enormous difference – especially if you cancel a subscription to a Murdoch paper or the Daily Mail to do it.

    The UK press are currently running a campaign begging advertisers not to desert them: they claim that now more than ever we need high quality journalism. Which is true, but many of the papers doing the begging – such as the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and the Murdoch press – would have a better case if high quality journalism was something they actually did.

    The likes of Murdoch will survive coronavirus – although in the US, his sons are “girding for a pandemic of public-interest lawsuits over misinformation and conspiracy theories” peddled by his TV networks, so here’s hoping – but smaller, independent publishers such as The Overtake, The Ferret, OpenDemocracy and many more need your support right now.

    Back to Frankie:

    The world’s worst people think that everybody is going to come out of this in a few months and go willingly back into a kind of numbing servitude. Surely it’s time to start imagining something better.

  • There has never been a better time to use this image

    The image is of a famous Mitchell & Webb sketch in which a Nazi, played by Mitchell, wonders whether they might be the bad guys.

    PinkNews:

    Neo-Nazis and homophobes are among those supporting the UK ‘anti-trans’ pressure group the LGB Alliance.

    …There is nothing to suggest the LGB Alliance has sought or welcomed such supporters, but when asked by PinkNews to denounce neo-Nazis, the LGB Alliance refused.

    It doesn’t matter whether you officially support or welcome them; if you’ve convinced homophobes, lesbophobes, biphobes and neo-bloody-Nazis that you’re on their side and that your beliefs align with theirs, and you then refuse to even make a lukewarm statement that homophobia and nazism are bad, you’re showing exactly who you are.
  • More important things to worry about

    In my post about transgender day of visibility, I mentioned that some people criticise such awareness days, especially now. Haven’t we got more important things to worry about?

    And we have, but the problem is that politicians use those bigger things as cover to attack us. An admittedly extreme example of that has just happened in Hungary, where the far-right prime minister Viktor Orban has turned the country into a dictatorship. On the very first day of the new powers, his deputy introduced a new bill that would make it impossible for Hungarian trans people* to legally change their gender and which would render previous legal changes invalid. There’s no reason for the legislation; the administration is just happily using its new powers to go after the people it hates.

    Something similar happened in Ohio on the same day, where the Republican governor signed into law two anti-trans bills: one prohibits trans people from amending their birth certificates; the other bans trans girls from participating in sports in their correct gender.

    This isn’t Hungary, of course, or Ohio. But COVID-19 has already had an impact on trans people here (beyond the fact that the entire gender clinic network has been shut down with all assessments, monitoring and surgeries cancelled for the foreseeable future). The Scottish Government has paused its plans for gender recognition reform due to the coronavirus crisis, and while I think such a pause is the right thing to do there is a difference between pausing non-essential legislation and using the pandemic as cover to abandon it. The language surrounding this particular suspension – “kicked into the long grass” – suggests it’s the latter. There are strong echoes of 9/11 being “a good day to bury bad news”: Coronavirus is a good excuse to bury legislation that’s become politically inconvenient.

    But it’s not just trans people who’ll find bad actors using coronavirus as cover. The same Ohio administration that’s targeted trans women during coronavirus is also attacking the rights of all women. The state’s attorney general has ordered abortion clinics to stop performing most procedures; in Texas, the AG went a step further and banned any procedure that is not necessary to save the woman’s life. Other states have followed suit.

    The argument here, and it’s a disingenuous one, is that resources are needed for more pressing tasks – and procedures that are not essential, such as non-urgent dental treatment and elective surgeries, are a waste of such resources. But abortion is not like the knee operations or dental fillings the politicians want to classify it alongside, and they know it: a woman who needs an abortion cannot wait for the coronavirus to pass.

    Ohio and its like-minded states may not seem to have much in common with Orban’s Hungary or Bolsonaro’s Brazil**. But they are united by their determination to control women, whether those women are pregnant women or trans women. And if a crisis gives them an opportunity to do that more easily, they will gladly take it.

    For women and for members of minority groups, times when “there are more important things to worry about” are often the very times when their rights are most threatened.

    * I say “trans people”, but the rhetoric and most of the legislation attacking trans people is focused specifically on trans girls and women.
    ** Although there are strong links between the dictators and the Republicans: for example, Orban hired republican strategist Arthur Finkelstein to revive his flagging electoral prospects; Bolsonaro is friends with Donald Trump and the “darling” of parts of the GOP.

  • Will Alex Salmond destroy the independence movement?

    If you only read one article about Alex Salmond’s trial and the dark side of the Scottish independence movement, you should read this exceptional piece by Dani Garavelli. 

    The trial effectively found that Alex Salmond was – in the words of his own lawyer, overheard on a train while the trial was ongoing – “inappropriate”, “stupid” and an “arsehole”. The defence admitted that Salmond had acted inappropriately towards multiple women, but the prosecution persuaded the jury that his actions were inappropriate rather than criminal. The issue wasn’t whether Salmond abused his power. He clearly did.

    That’s not how some independence supporters see it. To them, Salmond is the blameless victim of a conspiracy, a hero brought low by sinister forces within and without the SNP. They have demonised Salmond’s victims and vowed revenge on them – something Salmond has fuelled – and they believe that Nicola Sturgeon is part of the conspiracy and should resign.

    Garavelli:

    It is clear Salmond is on the warpath. The question is how far will he go? Is he willing to set fire to the house he built, just to watch his enemies burn?

    …Though his supporters would relish it, it is hard to see how he could shrug off the reputational damage the trial has done. More likely he will wield his power from the shadows, manipulating, undermining, bringing his influence to bear. And trying to destroy his former ally. There seems no doubt if he can bring Sturgeon down he will, and to hell with what that does to the cause.